By JOHN McCLAIN
Copyright 2003 Houston Chronicle
-----------------------------------------------
• McClain's Picks
------------------------------------------------ABOUT THE WRITER: John McClain covers the NFL for the Chronicle.
------------------------------------------------
McClain's Super Bowl picks:
AFC NFC
1. Chiefs 1. Eagles
2. Patriots 2. Rams
3. Titans 3. Seahawks
4. Colts 4. Panthers
5. Dolphins 5. Cowboys
Not only are some division titles at stake Sunday, but the NFL's most coveted award -- Most Valuable Player -- could be decided in the Indianapolis-Tennessee game.
What is being hyped as Showdown Sunday features five games that can either determine division titles for the winners or at least allow them to gain the upper hand.
In Nashville, quarterbacks Steve McNair and Peyton Manning may be playing for more than first place in the AFC South.
The Titans and Colts are 9-3 and coming off losses. McNair, who is leading the nationwide fan balloting for the Pro Bowl, has been considered the MVP front-runner for weeks.
But if Manning helps the Colts defeat the Titans for the second time, Indianapolis will own a one-game lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Barring upsets, the winner should end up hosting a wild-card game while the loser travels to the division winner with the worst record.
If the playoffs started this weekend, Indianapolis would host Miami, and Tennessee would travel to Cincinnati.
Manning, who threw four touchdown passes in an incredible comeback that fell short in Sunday's 38-34 loss to New England, could move ahead of McNair with a clutch performance against the Titans.
On the other hand, if McNair leads the Titans to a victory, he'll continue to be the MVP favorite. If McNair puts on an exceptional performance -- similar to the 421 yards and three touchdowns he threw for against the Texans in October -- he could put Manning in his rear-view mirror.
To see why McNair and Manning are regarded as the leading candidates for MVP, let's analyze others who are worthy of consideration.
First, you can just about rule out anyone in the NFC because it's so inferior to the AFC.
The leading MVP candidates in the NFC are Rams receiver Torry Holt, who leads the NFL with 92 catches for 1,387 yards and has 10 TDs, and Saints running back Deuce McAllister, who has nine consecutive 100-yard games. The dark horse is Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb.
Although the Saints have improved after the slow start, they're still not good enough for McAllister to make a serious run at MVP. But the Rams are 9-3 and tied with Philadelphia for the NFC's best record, and Holt has been St. Louis' best player.
If the Eagles continue to win and earn home-field advantage, McNabb should be a legitimate candidate because he overcame a horrendous start, and their improvement as a team coincided with his improvement.
But don't bet the house on any NFC player, but keep this in mind: Unlike Pro Bowl voting, which concludes way too early to be fair in many instances, the official Associated Press All-Pro Team and major individual awards aren't voted on by the media until the day after the season.
That means every game is paramount. It also means the Texans, who host the Titans and visit the Colts in their last two games, might be able to affect the MVP race.
Ranking close behind McNair and Manning are New England quarterback Tom Brady and Kansas City running back Priest Holmes. Closing fast is Cincinnati quarterback Jon Kitna.
Kitna? Don't laugh. Look at what he's done for the Bengals. He's got 22 touchdown passes, nine interceptions and a 91.2 passer rating. But if Cincinnati loses at Baltimore on Sunday, you can forget about Kitna as an MVP candidate.
Holmes has rushed for 17 touchdowns -- more than any team in the league -- for the team with the NFL's best record. For some reason, though, he's not getting as much attention as McNair and Manning.
As for Brady, statistically, he doesn't measure up. He has 15 TD passes and 12 interceptions. His 81.8 passer rating is 12th. He has a habit of throwing interceptions at the worst times. But Brady also has a way of making clutch plays at the most crucial times.
Brady's making a stretch run at McNair and Manning, and he could overtake them.
No quarterback has performed better in the last two minutes of regulation or in overtime. Just ask the Texans, Titans and Colts. Brady beat the Titans (38-30) and Colts near the end of regulation and the Texans (23-20) in overtime.
And don't forget that Brady's 10-2 record is one game better than McNair and Manning. Perhaps Brady will lead the Patriots to a 14-2 record by pulling out more improbable victories, but the consensus is still that McNair or Manning will be voted MVP.
McNair has completed 211 of 326 (64.7) for 2,712 yards and 20 touchdowns. He has six interceptions. He leads the league with a career-high 103.5 passer rating.
Manning has completed 294 of 441 (66.7 percent) for 3,383 yards and 23 touchdowns. He has nine interceptions. He leads the league in yards and touchdowns, and he's third in passer rating.
Something working against Manning is that he has a reputation of not winning the big game, going back to when he played at Tennessee and didn't beat Florida, win a national title or the Heisman Trophy. Manning also hasn't won a playoff game since he arrived in Indianapolis in 1998.
When the Colts made that unbelievable comeback to win 38-35 in overtime at Tampa Bay, Manning received a lot of well-deserved recognition and respect.
Unlike Manning, McNair has won playoff games, and he's been to a Super Bowl. Also unlike Manning, McNair has never been voted to a Pro Bowl. Being left off the AFC team last year in voting by players, coaches and fans -- and not being one of the two alternates -- actually worked out better for him. When he failed to make it after having his best season and leading the Titans to an 11-5 record, the outcry got him a lot of attention around the country.
Because the Titans have superb wideouts, the coaches allow McNair to throw the ball down the field. Their vertical passing game is a far cry from previous seasons when he primarily dumped off the ball to tight end Frank Wycheck when he wasn't handing off to running back Eddie George.
McNair's reputation for being tough and courageous and playing through injuries has earned him even more respect. But something else that stands out is how well he performs under pressure. He leads the league with a third-down passer rating of 124.3. His 11 touchdown passes on third down are tied for the lead. His 913 yards are second.
Manning or McNair could slip, but they can be thankful for one thing -- that Jets quarterback Chad Pennington missed the first seven games because of a fractured hand.
John McClain covers the NFL for the Chronicle. His column appears Fridays.
America's Line McClain's pick
Houston (5-7) plus-6 at Jacksonville (3-9) Jaguars 20-17
Dallas (8-4) plus-5 1/2 at Philadelphia (9-3) Eagles 23-16
Indianapolis (9-3) plus-2 1/2 at Tennessee (9-3) Titans 24-23
Washington (4-8) plus-3 at NY Giants (4-8) Giants 24-17
Cincinnati (7-5) plus-3 1/2 at Baltimore (7-5) Ravens 24-23
Oakland (3-9) plus-5 1/2 at Pittsburgh (4-8) Steelers 20-17
San Diego (2-10) plus-3 at Detroit (4-8) Lions 22-17
Chicago (5-7) plus-7 at Green Bay (6-6) Packers 20-17
Seattle (8-4) plus-1 1/2 at Minnesota (7-5) Vikings 24-20
Tampa Bay (5-7) plus-1 1/2 at New Orleans (6-6) Saints 20-16
Arizona (3-9) plus-10 at San Francisco (5-7) 49ers 30-23
NY Jets (5-7) plus-3 at Buffalo (5-7) Jets 27-17
Miami (8-4) plus-3 at New England (10-2) Patriots 20-13
Kansas City (11-1) plus-2 1/2 at Denver (7-5) Broncos 20-19
Carolina (8-4) minus-1 at Atlanta (2-10) Falcons 10-16
St. Louis (9-3) minus-4 at Cleveland (4-8) Browns 21-19
·Last week: 9-7 straight up, 6-10 against spread.
·Season: 123-69 straight up: 97-85-10 against spread.
Copyright 2003 Houston Chronicle
-----------------------------------------------
• McClain's Picks
------------------------------------------------ABOUT THE WRITER: John McClain covers the NFL for the Chronicle.
------------------------------------------------
McClain's Super Bowl picks:
AFC NFC
1. Chiefs 1. Eagles
2. Patriots 2. Rams
3. Titans 3. Seahawks
4. Colts 4. Panthers
5. Dolphins 5. Cowboys
Not only are some division titles at stake Sunday, but the NFL's most coveted award -- Most Valuable Player -- could be decided in the Indianapolis-Tennessee game.
What is being hyped as Showdown Sunday features five games that can either determine division titles for the winners or at least allow them to gain the upper hand.
In Nashville, quarterbacks Steve McNair and Peyton Manning may be playing for more than first place in the AFC South.
The Titans and Colts are 9-3 and coming off losses. McNair, who is leading the nationwide fan balloting for the Pro Bowl, has been considered the MVP front-runner for weeks.
But if Manning helps the Colts defeat the Titans for the second time, Indianapolis will own a one-game lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Barring upsets, the winner should end up hosting a wild-card game while the loser travels to the division winner with the worst record.
If the playoffs started this weekend, Indianapolis would host Miami, and Tennessee would travel to Cincinnati.
Manning, who threw four touchdown passes in an incredible comeback that fell short in Sunday's 38-34 loss to New England, could move ahead of McNair with a clutch performance against the Titans.
On the other hand, if McNair leads the Titans to a victory, he'll continue to be the MVP favorite. If McNair puts on an exceptional performance -- similar to the 421 yards and three touchdowns he threw for against the Texans in October -- he could put Manning in his rear-view mirror.
To see why McNair and Manning are regarded as the leading candidates for MVP, let's analyze others who are worthy of consideration.
First, you can just about rule out anyone in the NFC because it's so inferior to the AFC.
The leading MVP candidates in the NFC are Rams receiver Torry Holt, who leads the NFL with 92 catches for 1,387 yards and has 10 TDs, and Saints running back Deuce McAllister, who has nine consecutive 100-yard games. The dark horse is Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb.
Although the Saints have improved after the slow start, they're still not good enough for McAllister to make a serious run at MVP. But the Rams are 9-3 and tied with Philadelphia for the NFC's best record, and Holt has been St. Louis' best player.
If the Eagles continue to win and earn home-field advantage, McNabb should be a legitimate candidate because he overcame a horrendous start, and their improvement as a team coincided with his improvement.
But don't bet the house on any NFC player, but keep this in mind: Unlike Pro Bowl voting, which concludes way too early to be fair in many instances, the official Associated Press All-Pro Team and major individual awards aren't voted on by the media until the day after the season.
That means every game is paramount. It also means the Texans, who host the Titans and visit the Colts in their last two games, might be able to affect the MVP race.
Ranking close behind McNair and Manning are New England quarterback Tom Brady and Kansas City running back Priest Holmes. Closing fast is Cincinnati quarterback Jon Kitna.
Kitna? Don't laugh. Look at what he's done for the Bengals. He's got 22 touchdown passes, nine interceptions and a 91.2 passer rating. But if Cincinnati loses at Baltimore on Sunday, you can forget about Kitna as an MVP candidate.
Holmes has rushed for 17 touchdowns -- more than any team in the league -- for the team with the NFL's best record. For some reason, though, he's not getting as much attention as McNair and Manning.
As for Brady, statistically, he doesn't measure up. He has 15 TD passes and 12 interceptions. His 81.8 passer rating is 12th. He has a habit of throwing interceptions at the worst times. But Brady also has a way of making clutch plays at the most crucial times.
Brady's making a stretch run at McNair and Manning, and he could overtake them.
No quarterback has performed better in the last two minutes of regulation or in overtime. Just ask the Texans, Titans and Colts. Brady beat the Titans (38-30) and Colts near the end of regulation and the Texans (23-20) in overtime.
And don't forget that Brady's 10-2 record is one game better than McNair and Manning. Perhaps Brady will lead the Patriots to a 14-2 record by pulling out more improbable victories, but the consensus is still that McNair or Manning will be voted MVP.
McNair has completed 211 of 326 (64.7) for 2,712 yards and 20 touchdowns. He has six interceptions. He leads the league with a career-high 103.5 passer rating.
Manning has completed 294 of 441 (66.7 percent) for 3,383 yards and 23 touchdowns. He has nine interceptions. He leads the league in yards and touchdowns, and he's third in passer rating.
Something working against Manning is that he has a reputation of not winning the big game, going back to when he played at Tennessee and didn't beat Florida, win a national title or the Heisman Trophy. Manning also hasn't won a playoff game since he arrived in Indianapolis in 1998.
When the Colts made that unbelievable comeback to win 38-35 in overtime at Tampa Bay, Manning received a lot of well-deserved recognition and respect.
Unlike Manning, McNair has won playoff games, and he's been to a Super Bowl. Also unlike Manning, McNair has never been voted to a Pro Bowl. Being left off the AFC team last year in voting by players, coaches and fans -- and not being one of the two alternates -- actually worked out better for him. When he failed to make it after having his best season and leading the Titans to an 11-5 record, the outcry got him a lot of attention around the country.
Because the Titans have superb wideouts, the coaches allow McNair to throw the ball down the field. Their vertical passing game is a far cry from previous seasons when he primarily dumped off the ball to tight end Frank Wycheck when he wasn't handing off to running back Eddie George.
McNair's reputation for being tough and courageous and playing through injuries has earned him even more respect. But something else that stands out is how well he performs under pressure. He leads the league with a third-down passer rating of 124.3. His 11 touchdown passes on third down are tied for the lead. His 913 yards are second.
Manning or McNair could slip, but they can be thankful for one thing -- that Jets quarterback Chad Pennington missed the first seven games because of a fractured hand.
John McClain covers the NFL for the Chronicle. His column appears Fridays.
America's Line McClain's pick
Houston (5-7) plus-6 at Jacksonville (3-9) Jaguars 20-17
Dallas (8-4) plus-5 1/2 at Philadelphia (9-3) Eagles 23-16
Indianapolis (9-3) plus-2 1/2 at Tennessee (9-3) Titans 24-23
Washington (4-8) plus-3 at NY Giants (4-8) Giants 24-17
Cincinnati (7-5) plus-3 1/2 at Baltimore (7-5) Ravens 24-23
Oakland (3-9) plus-5 1/2 at Pittsburgh (4-8) Steelers 20-17
San Diego (2-10) plus-3 at Detroit (4-8) Lions 22-17
Chicago (5-7) plus-7 at Green Bay (6-6) Packers 20-17
Seattle (8-4) plus-1 1/2 at Minnesota (7-5) Vikings 24-20
Tampa Bay (5-7) plus-1 1/2 at New Orleans (6-6) Saints 20-16
Arizona (3-9) plus-10 at San Francisco (5-7) 49ers 30-23
NY Jets (5-7) plus-3 at Buffalo (5-7) Jets 27-17
Miami (8-4) plus-3 at New England (10-2) Patriots 20-13
Kansas City (11-1) plus-2 1/2 at Denver (7-5) Broncos 20-19
Carolina (8-4) minus-1 at Atlanta (2-10) Falcons 10-16
St. Louis (9-3) minus-4 at Cleveland (4-8) Browns 21-19
·Last week: 9-7 straight up, 6-10 against spread.
·Season: 123-69 straight up: 97-85-10 against spread.
